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Equities Research - Singapore Budget 2020

Ensuring it’s still a great way to fly

20 February 2020

In brief

  • Airline companies can look forward to additional support from Budget 2020. The relief package aims to alleviate short-term cost pressures and protect jobs.
  • Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) [BUY; FV: S$9.90] will likely be the key beneficiary in the aviation sector.
  • For hospitality, we believe Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP) [HOLD; FV: S$0.65] and CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDREIT SP) [BUY; FV: S$1.62] are likely to benefit the most of the announced policy measures.
  • However, Ascott Residence Trust (ART SP) [BUY; FV: S$1.40] remains our top pick given ART’s defensive and geographically diversified portfolio amid the current uncertain outlook.

Offering much-needed relief to a beleaguered sector

The government announced a S$112 million package co-funded by the Government, the Civil Aviation Authority of Singapore (CAAS) and the Changi Airport Group (CAG) to provide immediate relief for the aviation sector. The assistance will be provided for 6 months to alleviate businesses’ cost pressures and protect jobs amid headwinds from the COVID-19 outbreak.

Airlines operating flights between mainland China and Singapore have been the hardest hit and impacted most directly thus far by the COVID-19 outbreak. Singapore Airlines (SIA) has cancelled more than 700 flights between Singapore and countries like Japan, South Korea, Germany and the United States between March and May due to weaker demand due to the COVID-19 epidemic.

Moreover, ground handling agents and retail/F&B tenants at the airport are adversely impacted by the decline in customer traffic. Announced measures including rental rebates are focused on aiding these businesses ride out a tough environment ahead.

The relief package for the aviation sector this year is much larger than the one delivered during SARS. The latter cost the government S$45 million while the COVID-19 package is valued at S$112 million.

These relief measures are likely to benefit Singapore Airlines (SIA SP) [BUY; FV: S$9.90], SATS and SIA Engineering (SIE) and would go some way to help cover their short-term revenue loss. Performance outlook of these three companies have been weighed down by weaker travel demand after the COVID-19 outbreak. A key concern has been to keep costs under control and Budget 2020 measures would help these companies mitigate near-term pressures.

Still at your service

Hospitality is among the sectors hardest hit by the COVID-19 epidemic. Hotel operators suffered from room/events cancellations and slowdown in forward bookings since the outbreak of COVID-19.

Industry average occupancy declined significantly to 50-60% since January, as compared to the occupancy rate of > 80% during the same period last year. Singapore Tourism Board estimated that visitor arrivals to Singapore could fall 25-30% this year due to the outbreak of COVID-19. The relief measures could provide timely support to hospitality sector.

We believe Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP) [HOLD; FV: S$0.65] and CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDREIT SP) [BUY; FV: S$1.62] are likely to benefit the most given that FEHT is a pure play on Singapore hospitality while CDLHT has substantial presence in Singapore (62% by FY19 NPI).

However, Ascott Residence Trust (ART SP) [BUY; FV: S$1.40] remains our top pick as we like ART’s defensive, geographically diversified portfolio, given the still uncertain outlook.

The contents in this page were adapted from an OCBC Investment Research analyst report.