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Equities Research - Singapore Budget 2020

SREITs: Paying it forward

20 February 2020

In brief

  • As expected, Budget 2020 delivered a slew of policy measures to aid sectors that were more directly impacted by the COVID-19 outbreak.
  • These included corporate and property tax rebates for companies operating in impacted sectors as well as cash payouts for households.
  • Hospitality and retail S-REITs are likely to benefit from the budget. Overall, we see CapitaLand Mall Trust [BUY; FV: S$2.90] as a laggard play; our other top S-REIT picks are Ascendas REIT [BUY; FV: S$3.59] and Suntec REIT [BUY; FV: S$2.05].

Good things must share

Among the string of measures announced in Budget 2020 to support the Singapore economy is a corporate income tax rebate of 25% for companies, capped at S$15,000, for Year of Assessment 2020. This will benefit all tax paying companies.

Although this will not benefit SREITs directly as they are granted tax transparency if they distribute at least 90% of their taxable income to unitholders, there would be an indirect benefit as their tenants would enjoy the income tax rebates, and this will help to support their cashflows.

A property tax rebate of 15% will also be provided to qualifying commercial properties (food services and retail business related) for the year 2020, and Minister for Finance Heng Swee Keat has urged landlords to pass this benefit on to tenants.

There have been increasing calls by the Singapore Retailers Association for landlords to provide rental concessions to retailers amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Given this announced tax rebate, we are expecting most or all of the rebates to be passed on by retail REITs to their tenants.

From our channel checks, Frasers Centrepoint Trust (FCT SP) [HOLD; FV: S$2.93] would likely provide some forms of rent reduction to tenants and are working on the details. Additional measures may also be provided on a targeted approach basis.

Our preferred retail REIT is CapitaLand Mall Trust (CT SP) [BUY; FV: S$2.90]. We expect management to pass on the full property tax rebate to its tenants. We note that for FCT and CT, property taxes formed 9.7% and 9.3% of their FY19 gross rental incomes, respectively.

Offering a hand to the hospitality sector

The hospitality industry has been one of the worst hit sectors during the ongoing COVID-19 outbreak, and thus it was unsurprising that Budget 2020 placed a strong emphasis on providing assistance.

A property tax rebate of 30% for the year 2020 will be granted to licensed hotels and serviced apartments (accommodation and function room components), as well as prescribed Meetings, Incentives, Conventions, and Exhibitions (MICE) venues.

We believe Far East Hospitality Trust (FEHT SP) [HOLD; FV: S$0.65] and CDL Hospitality Trusts (CDREIT SP) [BUY; FV: S$1.62] are likely to enjoy the most benefits given that FEHT is a pure play on Singapore hospitality and CDREIT has a significant presence in Singapore (62% by FY19 NPI).

However, Ascott Residence Trust (ART SP) [BUY; FV: S$1.40] remains our top hospitality pick as we like ART’s defensive, geographically diversified portfolio, given the still uncertain outlook. Besides hospitality REITs with significant Singapore exposure, Suntec REIT’s (SUN SP) [BUY; FV: S$2.05] convention business (16.8% of FY19 gross revenue) will also be a beneficiary of this initiative.

Some support for consumption spending

Minister Heng also announced that previously highlighted plans for a 2-percentage points GST hike from 7% to 9% will be delayed to sometime between 2022 and 2025. This means the GST will remain at 7% at least through 2021. Although this deferment will not be put off indefinitely, it will at least help to negate the negative impact from a hike in GST on consumption spending in the near term.

The government also announced policy measures to help Singaporean households ride out uncertain times ahead with a Care and Support Package. Depending on income, Singaporeans aged 21 and above will receive a one-off cash payout of S$100 to S$300, while every adult Singaporean with at least one Singaporean child (aged 20 and below) will receive a further S$100 cash payout. Although it is difficult to quantify how much of this will be spent in shopping malls, we can still expect some support for the retail market.

Overall, we see CapitaLand Mall Trust [BUY; FV: S$2.90] as a laggard play; our other top S-REIT picks are Ascendas REIT [BUY; FV: S$3.59] and Suntec REIT [BUY; FV: S$2.05].

The contents in this page were adapted from an OCBC Investment Research analyst report.