Economics

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Global

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Ideas

A brave new world

4 September 2018

Growth: Moderating but still solid

  • The world continues to grow at a solid pace, even as trade tensions loom large.
  • The composite purchasing manager index of the G3 economies and China continue to hover comfortably above the expansionary threshold (i.e. 50).
  • While PMIs have slipped from 2017-highs, it is far from signalling that growth is on a cliff’s edge. Rather, moderation seems more likely.

Turbulence as we transition

  • While the economic backdrop appears sound, the geo-political environment is less stable. Headlines have been dominated by protectionist rhetoric, major territorial disputes, terrorism, surging cyber-crime and even the threat of a nuclear war.
  • Financial markets are also facing added pressure from central banks, which are mostly seeking to normalize interest rates from historic lows and, where possible, remove easy money by trimming their balance sheet. A Federal Reserve doggedly focused on tightening monetary policy and a US administration determined to put “America First” whatever the cost, are ingredients for a potentially nasty cocktail.
  • Yet, in spite of the hubbub of geo-political and policy-related risks, market volatility has stayed relatively low, with Wall Street’s fear gauge – the VIX index – trading below the five-year average. The relative quiet in the market betrays a sense of complacency about these risks.
  • Unfortunately, headline risks have not fully subsided and we do not expect them to anytime soon. The Western world and the Middle East continue to reel from the Trump administration’s often abrasive posture to foreign policy.
  • In addition, the tug of war between political orthodoxy and populist sentiments looks poised to continue as both Europe and the US face an election year. Meanwhile, Italian risk continues to lurk in the background given the new populist coalition government’s intent to reverse austerity and pursue an expansionary fiscal agenda, which would bring the country directly into conflict with the European Union and its unwavering focus on fiscal discipline.
  • Meanwhile, monetary tightening in the US would inevitably impact emerging markets in the form of a strengthening greenback and reveal vulnerabilities in the region.
  • Ultimately, the process of transitioning to a new - albeit unsettling - political environment and the adjustment to a tighter monetary policy regiment would inevitably engender higher volatility ahead. Investors beware.

So, what should investors do?

Given the investment backdrop, investors should heed three key points:

  • Stay invested but remain cautious as well: Fear of missing out is a real cost for long-term investors (refer to chart below). Also, as a general rule, forget about timing the market. Investors who are risk averse should be more concerned about time in the market. Nevertheless, tactical opportunities can sometimes arise in periods of turbulence. As such, investors should keep some dry powder ready, so as to capitalise on opportunities to buy on dips that may arise as markets become more volatile.
  • Diversify: Trade protectionism creates sectoral and regional winners and losers, and so diversification is key for investors looking to reduce portfolio volatility and avoid being overly-concentrated in the losers. To ensure portfolios are sufficiently diversified, investors should look further afield for assets that are less correlated or even negatively correlated with other existing investments in their portfolio.
  • Adopt a long-term perspective: Investors should focus on remaining invested with the correct long-term investment strategy. Over an extended period of time, markets tend to trend upwards. Hence, the probability of negative returns declines the longer your time-horizon for investment. The key is to have a well-constructed portfolio in place to ride out volatile periods. It’s akin to having a reasonably strong vessel to help you navigate through rough seas – the ship will get you to your destination with time, but the journey could be faster and perhaps more comfortable if the vessel were sturdier.

Below are some of our top fund investment ideas that tick all the boxes above.

The information below solely constitutes the views of OCBC Bank and does not consider the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of anyone. The Bank is therefore not responsible for any loss or damage arising from this information. Investment involves risks. If you wish to make an investment, you should first speak to your OCBC Relationship Manager or a Personal Financial Consultant.
LION-OCBC GLOBAL CORE FUND (MODERATE) ACC SGD-H

Suitable for Balanced/ Growth

1-year performance

+ 6.53 %

LION-OCBC GLOBAL CORE FUND (MODERATE) DIST SGD-H

Suitable for Balanced/ Growth

1-year performance

+ 6.46 %

BGF- DYNAMIC HIGH INCOME FUND A2 SGD-H

Suitable for Growth/ Aggressive

1-year performance

+ 9.58 %

BGF- DYNAMIC HIGH INCOME FUND A6 SGD-H

Suitable for Growth/ Aggressive

1-year performance

+ 9.58 %

LION-BANK OF SINGAPORE ASIAN INCOME FD A DIS SGD-H

Suitable for Balanced/ Growth/ Aggressive

1-year performance

+ 8.65 %

LION-BANK OF SINGAPORE ASIAN INCOME FD A ACC SGD-H

Suitable for Balanced/ Growth

1-year performance

+ 8.66 %